2/2/09

Oscar Predictions!

The 81st Academy Awards don't air until February 22ND, but the nominations (which were mostly predictable and boring) were announced a few weeks ago. Like most years, the Oscars have done nothing but pick the best-of-the-best...at least the best-of-the-best as far as dramatic, artsy, and/or foreign films go. Sorry. It just baffles me every year the stuff that is snubbed because it doesn't fit those roles. Anyways, I am going to tell you who should win, who I think will win, and who should of at least been nominated.

BEST PICTURE (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Reader)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire - Like I said before, the only flawless movie of the year.
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire - This seems to be the "cool" pick this year, and the Academy seems to follow that.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Wall-E, In Bruges and The Dark Knight (Instead of The Reader and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

DIRECTING (Same as Best Picture)
Actually, everything about this section is the same. The only difference may be that David Fincher could be awarded for his work on Button, which, despite some major flaws and drags in the script and storyboard, was directed very uniquely and quite well, capturing some great dialogue and getting good performances from his actors.
Also, I would probably replace Ron Howard's nomination for Frost/Nixon with a nomination for Andrew Stanton's work on the breathtaking and realistic Wall-E.




ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Frank Langella - Throughout most of Frost/Nixon, I forgot I was watching a portrayal of the infamous president and not the real thing.
WHO WILL WIN: Mickey Rourke - Haven't seen The Wrestler yet, but the Academy loves a comeback...and he won the Golden Globe, which is sometimes a prediction in and of itself.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire), Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon), Colin Farrell and/or Brendan Gleason (In Bruges), or even Robert Downey Jr. (Iron Man) instead of the good-but-not-great nomination of Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button...But if a sixth nomination could be added, GIVE IT TO SLY STALLONE FOR ANOTHER (LITERALLY) MIND-BLOWING TURN AS THE MANLIEST MAN OF ALL-TIME, RAMBO! Seriously though, if you are of the male species, rent the newest Rambo and try not to love it....I dare ya.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Heath Ledger - Definitely the saddest nomination since the role possibly played a prominent part in his death, but this is the most engaging performance of the year hands down.
WHO WILL WIN: I am the least informed on this category, but I will still say Ledger - Like the Globes, I think the Academy will want to honor him at least for his death, but even if he was still living, I believe he deserves it.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Ralph Fiennes (In Bruges) or Brad Pitt (Burn after Reading), although I can't confidently say who they would replace since I loved Downey in Tropic Thunder (even though the movie itself wasn't that great) and I haven't seen the other ones.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Angelina Jolie, Changeling; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, The Reader)
Okay, okay, so I haven't seen any of these movies (although I really want to see Frozen River and Doubt). But here is my short opinion.
WHO WILL WIN: Either Winslet (who won the Globe) or Streep (who wins everything)...but I am leaning towards Winslet.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Frances McDormand (Burn after Reading or Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day).

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Either Adams (who is always great) or Henson (who gives a heartbreaking performance in a film full of slightly dull performances)
WHO WILL WIN: Adams or Tomei.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Amy Adams (Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day) - again, not one of my favorite movies of the year, but the two main women in this are fantastic and fun to watch together.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, Wall-E)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Wall-E
WHO WILL WIN: Wall-E
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Wall-E...oh, sorry. But as usual in this relatively new category, there is no question who deserves the Oscar. I will say, however that Justice League: The New Frontier was probably better than Bolt. Now, I know it was straight to video and I am somewhat biased since I love comics, but that movie really is great. Check it out!

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) (Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, In Bruges, Wall-E)
WHO SHOULD WIN: In Bruges, hands down - Some of the sharpest dialogue in years, great character development, and beautifully dark yet humorous story.
WHO WILL WIN: Milk or Frozen River. Purely a guess, I haven't seen either.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: Burn after Reading or The Visitor - neither had great execution as far as direction goes, but both had great scripts acted well.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire - again, it is perfect in every sense.
WHO WILL WIN: Slumdog...or maybe The Reader.
WHO SHOULD'VE BEEN NOMINATED: The Dark Knight! Come on, people! That was dramatic-brooding-thriller-cinema at its finest and that is owed in large part to its script.
There are dozens of other technical and musical categories, but these are the ones I am most interested in. Let me know what you think! How right am I on all these choices? Don't act like you're not impressed.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with your choices of who will want to win, but I think that Milk and The Reader will win more than you think... not that I agree with those choices.

I also agree that the academy awards overlook well done movies for the best picture nomination unless they have a retarded kid, a gay guy, and/ or a naughty love relationship in it

Unknown said...

Kudos to Janelle. I was totally going to mention that Milk will probably win more because it features a gay politician. Unfortunately, 80% of Hollywood movies suck; therefore, approximately 80% of the people in Hollywood must, by default, not know what a good movie is.

Also, I was hoping you might explain the "writing / adapted screenplay" category. I used to think that was like the best film based on a play, but that's clearly not the case. What is it?

rob said...

I hate the Oscars. I hate the Oscars worse than having a bad head cold and creating snot bubbles when I breathe.

Matt said...

It is awarded each year to the writer of a screenplay adapted from another source (usually a novel, play, or short story but also sometimes another film). All sequels are automatically considered adaptations by this standard (since the sequel must be based on the original story)


thank you, wikipedia! you never fail to amaze me